Recently, the National Advisory Committee on Building a Strong Manufacturing Country issued the "Made-in-China 2025" Technology Roadmap for Key Areas (2015 Edition). The roadmap focuses on the development trend, key points and goals of the ten key areas identified in Made in China 2025 in the next decade, and strives to be in the leading position or advanced level in the world by 2025.
The road map clarifies several key products in 10 key areas of Made in China 2025. The key products in each field are:
_New Generation Information Technology Industry: Integrated Circuit and Special Equipment, Information Communication Equipment, Operating System and Industrial Software, Intelligence
Manufacturing core information equipment;
High-grade CNC machine tools and robots: high-grade CNC machine tools and basic manufacturing equipment, robots;
Aerospace equipment: aircraft, aero-engine, aero-onboard equipment and systems, aerospace equipment
_Marine engineering equipment and high-tech ships: marine engineering equipment and high-tech ships;
Advanced rail transit equipment: advanced rail transit equipment;
Energy-saving and new energy vehicles: energy-saving vehicles, new energy vehicles, intelligent network vehicles;
Electric power equipment: power generation equipment, transmission and transformation equipment;
Agricultural equipment: agricultural equipment;
_New materials: advanced basic materials, key strategic materials, cutting-edge new materials;
Biomedical and high-performance medical devices: Biomedical and high-performance medical devices.
At the same time, according to the development trend of related fields, the ten key areas are divided into 23 key directions, each of which is divided into several key products, key technologies and demonstration projects. For example, the new generation of information technology industry includes four directions: integrated circuit and special equipment, information communication equipment, operating system and industrial software, and intelligent manufacturing core information equipment.
Each key development direction of the roadmap is analyzed and described in accordance with five dimensions: demand, goal, development focus, application demonstration focus, strategic support and support. Detailed technical roadmap from 2015 to 2025 and looking forward to 2030 is formed respectively. In view of the acceleration of market and technological changes, the Advisory Committee will adjust the technology roadmap dynamically in a timely manner and revise and issue a new version of the roadmap every two years. The 2015 version of the roadmap will be officially released by the publishing house, and the electronic version will be published on the website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
At the same time, each key development is analyzed and depicted according to five latitudes: demand, target, development focus, application demonstration focus, strategic support and support. Detailed technical roadmap from 2015 to 2025 is formed, and the future of 2030 is also prospected. Many experts predict that the above 23 key areas of development will quickly become a hot spot in manufacturing industry and attract a large number of market capital. In addition, the roadmap also forecasts the market size and growth prospects of the relevant areas. In the medium and long term, there are huge potential market demand in the 23 key areas, which indicates that these areas will attract capital competition while becoming hot spots in the market.
Lu Yongxiang, Chairman of the Advisory Committee and former Vice-Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, pointed out on the same day that manufacturing covers a wide range of areas. In order to ensure that China can enter the ranks of manufacturing powers in 10 years, we must adhere to the principle of overall promotion and key breakthroughs. He said that the issuance of the road map can guide enterprises and scientific research institutions to determine the direction and focus of their own development on the basis of full market research and careful consideration of their own conditions; it can guide financial institutions to use their own financial means to support enterprises engaged in R&D, production and use of products and technologies listed in the road map, and guide market resources to the country. The road map of strategic focus and effective aggregation can provide advice and reference for government departments at all levels to use their own resources to support the development of key areas, and is a powerful tool for municipal government departments to design public policies.
The government entrusts third-party organizations to organize authoritative experts in relevant fields to study and put forward the technical direction, objectives and priorities of key areas in the future, which can provide reference for enterprise decision-making and help enterprises avoid detours. The roadmap is not to instruct enterprises how to do, but to guide and reference. This is also an important measure to innovate the main body of the government service market. We should strengthen the interpretation and propaganda of the road map through various forms, and guide enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, to make good use of the road map scientifically.
At present, the global manufacturing industry is in a new period of change. The future manufacturing mode will be completely changed. Individualized products will be produced in a flexible manufacturing mode with high efficiency and a certain batch. Robots will play an irreplaceable role in the new manufacturing mode.
At present, the traditional industrial robots can not adapt to the future manufacturing mode because of their limited scope of work. The new generation of robots will bring tremendous changes to future factories, even change the global competition pattern, because they are more intelligent, more flexible, more cooperative and more adaptable.
1. Background and Industrial Demand
Accelerating the development of robotics technology and industry reflects the national will and strategy
With the rapid increase of labor cost and the loss of demographic dividend advantage in China, this old manufacturing mode has been greatly impacted. It has become a new comparative advantage to replace labor force with robots. Robot has become a "must-choose" from "alternative", forcing China to accelerate industrial development, becoming an important path to realize the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry and enhance the competitiveness of manufacturing industry.
The limitations of traditional robot technology restrict the deep development of robot application and industry.
Traditional robots work in static, structured and deterministic unmanned environments and perform repetitive tasks in a fixed time sequence. The characteristics of this kind of robots lie in the relative isolation of space, non-contact with human beings, pre-programmed or instructional reproduction control, and the need for external security. Globalized market segmentation and the return of customized production mode make small batch, multi-variety, short cycle and personalization become the prominent characteristics of emerging manufacturing industry, and also the main production mode of future manufacturing industry. Emerging manufacturing modes such as flexible manufacturing and individualized manufacturing need "workmate" robots that can work with industrial workers and accomplish human-like skills. These new and huge demands are not available in traditional robotics technology. It can be seen that the limitations of traditional robot technology restrict the deep development of robot application and industry.
The next generation of intelligent robots brings opportunities for China to catch up with developed countries rapidly.
Robotic was put forward in the roadmap of robots released by the United States in 2013.
Partner, the "Horizon 2020 Plan" announced by the European Union in 2014, has put forward the "Co-Worker", which all outline the future of the next generation of intelligent robots. Baxter, Justin of German Aerospace Center, LWR-IV robot developed by KUKA-DLR and YuMi of ABB show the prototype of next generation intelligent robot. Our country has made some preliminary achievements in the research of key technologies of next generation intelligent robots, but these studies are decentralized and spontaneous, without top-level design and strong financial support. At present, there is no systematic support of special science and technology projects. In this case, it is difficult for the next generation of intelligent robots to develop rapidly. The next generation of intelligent robots has just begun to be developed in developed countries abroad, and the gap between China and foreign countries is not large. This undoubtedly brings us a golden opportunity. If we can seize this opportunity and start planning from the top level, our country is expected to catch up with the developed countries in the next generation of intelligent robot technology and industry.
2. The Concept and Connotation of Next Generation Industrial Robot
The next generation industrial robot is a kind of human assistant robot which can integrate into human production, living environment, complement human advantages, cooperate and help each other, and then become a human assistant robot with variable operation ability. "Integrating with people" is the most essential feature of the next generation of industrial robots. The so-called integration with human beings is an abstract concise relationship between human beings and robots, including three aspects of connotation:
Task Fusion - Man and robot cooperate with each other to accomplish a specified task;
Behavior integration - human and robot are consistent, coordinated and mutually helpful in behavior;
Intelligence Fusion - Intelligence of human beings and autonomous behavior of robots are fused to improve the level of intelligence of robots.
Three industries are facing multiple challenges
The bottlenecks of the next generation of industrial robots are mainly manifested in the following two levels.
Although robotics technology has been developed for nearly 60 years, it has not been separated from the category of automated machines based on pre-programming/teleoperation. Existing robotic systems face enormous technological challenges to meet the needs of emerging manufacturing industries.
First, perception and decision-making. Existing robots are suitable for static, structured and deterministic unmanned environments to complete fixed-time, repetitive tasks. The new generation of industrial robots need to complete dynamic and changeable tasks in natural (non-artificial), unpredictable and complex human environment, which challenges the sensing, cognitive and planning decision-making capabilities of robots.
Second, dexterous work. Existing industrial robots mainly aim at single rigid object and complete simple grasping and moving operations. The new generation of industrial robots'operation/service objects extend to complex combinations, soft objects and even living organisms. They are more complex, more skillful, more dynamic and more uncertain, and challenge the material, driving, control and learning abilities of robots.
Third, man-machine integration. Existing industrial robots are basically isolated from human beings in physical space and operated by professional and technical personnel. A new generation of industrial robots will be deeply integrated into human production and life. Human and machine share space and physical contact. Safety and good interactive experience are very important, which challenge the ability of two-way information exchange, cooperative perception, intelligent fusion and behavior cooperation between robots and humans.
The number of industrial robots per 10,000 industrial workers in China's manufacturing industry is much lower than that in developed countries.
Since the German government officially put forward the concept of industrial 4.0 in 2013, we have begun to imagine and discuss the picture of robots completely replacing human work in the industrial 4.0 era. Since the release of Made in China 2025, which encourages and guides enterprises to transform and upgrade, and promotes intelligent development, China's pace towards industrial 4.0 has been accelerating day by day.
However, many people worry that the situation of "robots make people lose their jobs" does not seem to have any intention of coming. Most of the vivid machines are just some advanced factories in the news reports. Foxconn's factories have moved and moved, and the slogan of the Million Robots Project is much bigger than it really is. Large-scale robot replacement has not been achieved.
Increasing industrial costs, fluctuating market needs and national policies to encourage transformation show the need for machine replacement. We all know the truth, but why is it so slow and difficult for machines to change people?
Funds: Traditional machine replacement investment is too high
Industrial robots used in industry are not like service robots used in families: they can buy one for hundreds of dollars. Let's make an account. The uniaxial track manipulator used in industry, coupled with a set of servo control, can only achieve a horizontal movement function, which is thousands of yuan cheap and tens of thousands of yuan precise. If we want to achieve three-dimensional action and add more functions (grasping, moving, placing, etc.), we should conservatively estimate 100,000 yuan. Assuming that a robot can replace three workers, a medium-sized factory with about 300 people will have to invest 50 million yuan to replace half of the machines.
In fact, the cost of machine replacement is much higher than our rough calculation.
Robots are too expensive
The revamping technology of robot production line is very strict. Robots may be useless after the target product is finished, or even half of the order is reduced. If other products are to be produced, the transformation of the production line of robots is a big and troublesome project. In recent years, affected by the fluctuation of market and orders, Xiaobian once made a non-standard manipulator equipment for a factory, which cost about 100,000 yuan. The factory pulled the machine and used it for less than a week. The production order was finished and the machine was idle.
The advantage of using workers is "plug and play". They can change jobs at any time, and a little training can be transferred from one product to another. Employees are recruited when orders are large and some employees are laid off when orders are small. Enterprises can operate flexibly.
Therefore, in order to completely transform the traditional production line into the effect of robot replacement, the investment cost will be very high, it will take several years to see the benefits, the return time is too long, so that many small and medium-sized manufacturers lack of funds are discouraged.
Equipment: Lack of core technology for robots
China's industrial technology is weak and lacks the core technology of science and technology, especially robots.
The core of the robot is the motor, and the core technology of the motor is in the hands of foreign enterprises. According to the report of the International Robotics Federation, the number of robots in China accounts for one third of the total number of robots in the world, but most of them are brand names of Germany, Japan, the United States and other countries. Chinese brand robots mostly use foreign core parts, and then assemble themselves, lacking technological competitiveness. Although domestic robots are cheap, data show that the average trouble-free time of domestic robots is 8000 hours, while foreign brands can reach 50,000 hours.
With the deepening globalization of information and economy, foreign brands are also aware of the huge potential of China's robotic market. International giants have set up strategic bases in China, which has a great impact on China's independent R&D technology.
Only when the core technology is in their hands can the cost and threshold of machine replacement be lowered.
Talents: Shortage of Professional and Technical Talents
The so-called machine replacement and "unmanned factory" are not totally unmanned. It is unavoidable that a variety of faults will occur during the operation of the machine. The system design and transformation of the robot also need the skilled technicians with professional knowledge. According to statistics, an average of 10 robots in the automotive industry need a technical service person, while an average of 5-6 robots in the non-automotive industry need a technical service person.
However, China's talent cultivation work has always been insufficient to meet the market. On the one hand, robots have high technology content and extensive professional knowledge. In addition, there are obvious differences among robots in various industries, which lead to difficulties and long-term training of robots. On the other hand, the state and individuals do not attach enough importance to the knowledge reserve of robots. In recent years, although they have begun to advocate the development of high-tech, the personnel training mechanism of enterprises is still not sound enough, which often leads to brain drain.
The lack of technical service personnel in the robotics industry also indirectly increases the cost of robot replacement, resulting in the difficulty of machine replacement.
Professional training is a big problem
It's not that you don't want to change machines. It's really impossible for an enterprise to do that. Xiaobian believes that machine replacement is not only an enterprise's own business, but also the historical task of the whole country's industry. The introduction of development resources, the issuance of guidance policies and the assistance of enterprise transformation still need another push by the state before the door of industrial 4.0.